Older adult interacting with ElliQ robot
ElliQ is an empathetic care companion designed for older adults aging independently at home. (Image courtesy of Intuition Robotics)

The new Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 forecasts a near five-year increase in global life expectancy by 2050, but it also highlights threats, such as obesity and high blood pressure, that could undermine potential gains. The study, conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and published in The Lancet, projects life expectancy to rise from around 76 to 80 years for women and 71 to 76 years for men worldwide over the next three decades.

Here are several key takeaways.

  • A continuing shift away from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as heart disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes, will play a role in the extended life forecast. NCD-associated risk factors, such as obesity, high blood pressure, nonoptimal diet, and smoking, will have the greatest impact on disease burden of the next generation. By 2050, 77.6% of the global disease burden may come from these non-communicable causes.
  • Eliminating key metabolic risks such as high body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar could reduce the global disease burden by 13.3%. In contrast, improving childhood nutrition and vaccination rates would only reduce it by 0.6[DS3] %.
  • While age-adjusted disease rates will decline, the total number of deaths and ill-health are projected to increase due to population aging and growth, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where the population may grow by over 80%.
  • This projected rate of increase is slower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic era. Progress is also predicted to be uneven. Regions with comparatively low life expectations will be seeing the largest gains. For example, sub-Saharan Africa will see an increase in life expectancy from about 64 years in 2022 to 74 years in 2050. This contrasts with high-income countries, with a two -year increase predicted. 

The researchers modeled alternative scenarios showing the potential for policies targeting key risks to reshape future health trends. However, threats like climate change, pandemics, and antimicrobial resistance loom if left unchecked.