The American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living released some updated supply and demand numbers last week. 

To say they are concerning would be an extreme understatement.

In a nutshell: Since the onset of COVID-19, nearly 800 nursing homes have closed, displacing almost 30,000 residents.

“It’s not hyperbole to say access to care is a national crisis,” said Mark Parkinson, the organization’s president and CEO. He’s right. Nursing homes are closing faster than new ones can open, and the challenges aren’t just logistical. They’re existential.

So why is this happening when demand for long-term care services is increasing and about to explode? 

Two developments stand out. First, new nursing home construction has stalled. While 73 new nursing homes opened in 2020, only 37 came online last year, according to AHCA/NCAL. The nation has lost 62,567 nursing home beds since 2020, a number that should make anyone involved in this industry take notice.

Second, the growth of alternative long-term care options, such as home care and assisted living, has siphoned off resources and attention from traditional facilities. While these choices provide valuable services they also strain an already overburdened system. Nursing homes are being left behind in a rapidly changing market.

Perhaps the most concerning finding in the report is the emergence of “nursing home deserts” — areas with no skilled nursing facilities to serve aging populations. These underserved regions are becoming common in rural America, where 1 in 5 older Americans live. 

The closure of a single nursing home in a rural county can leave an entire region without needed care. In extreme cases, residents are forced to move across state lines to find the nearest facility.

The situation is dire: Nearly half of all nursing homes are limiting new admissions, over half have waiting lists, and 1 in 5 have had to close units due to labor shortages.

The sector is clearly at a crossroads. Policymakers, providers and communities must work together to ensure every senior has access to needed skilled care services. Otherwise, the consequences will be dire.

For everyone involved.

John O’Connor is editorial director for McKnight’s.

Opinions expressed in McKnight’s Long-Term Care News columns are not necessarily those of McKnight’s.